The US Federal Reserve is expected to stop raising interest rates by end-March, with a majority of Reuters economists predicting a stop.

The median probability of a recession within a year has dropped to 40%, its lowest since September 2022.

The Fed will retain the federal funds rate at 5.25-5.50%, with around 80% foreseeing no rate hikes this year.

Policymakers’ latest minutes show a disagreement on whether one more raise is needed.

The Fed’s favored inflation gauge fell substantially from 7.0% in early 2022, and the poll predicts it won’t reach 2% until 2025.

Bond markets have swung due to rising hopes that rates will stay higher longer to avoid a catastrophic downturn.

Most 95 experts with estimates until mid-2024 expect rates to fall at least once, but the date of the first cut is disputed.