The Iran war’s energy shock may be threatening the US economy, but the labor market hasn’t noticed.
The April jobs report on Friday is expected to show a 62,000 payroll rise, quickening wage growth, a stable unemployment rate, and rising labor force participation.

That would cease the dramatic fluctuations in employment in the first three months of the year and return to a healthier steady quo than 2025, when private-sector hiring averaged 25,000.

High-frequency data in recent weeks contributes to optimism. In late April, unemployment insurance claims dropped to their lowest level since 1969, while ADP’s weekly private-sector payrolls rose.

The US may not be breaking out of the “low-hire, low-fire” trend of the previous few years, according to another research due Tuesday. March job opportunities are expected to remain unchanged from February.

“The US economy has survived the oil shock, and some parts are even benefiting from the war—trade data will show energy exports rose into April. Activity is holding up because labor-market conditions may be stable or improving. Large enterprises are employing whereas tiny firms are not.

According to their Wednesday interest-rate decision, Federal Reserve officials are more concerned about energy price inflation than growth. Investors will watch US central bankers’ appearances for price pressure concerns.