Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius expects good GDP growth and progress in retail sales and job growth, which have shown a robust American consumer in the past week.

Retail sales rose 0.2% in June, while 209,000 jobs were added, indicating progress in economic expansion-contraction debates.

Goldman Sachs has delayed recession predictions, now expecting a 20% recession in 12 months.

Real personal disposable income growth, a Bureau of Economic Analysis statistic, supports consumption, while Morgan Stanley raised its fourth-quarter GDP forecast to 1.3%. Retail sales “control group” sales rose 0.6% in June, indicating strong labor markets, excess saving, and positive wealth effects.