The annual rotation on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest-rate-setting committee makes its 2024 voting members somewhat more hawkish than the 2023 group.

Many analysts argue that if inflation falls faster than projected, Fed policymakers will want to cut rates even more than the three-quarters-percentage point reflected in last week’s estimates.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s favored inflation measure, supports this assessment.

As pricing pressures ease and the labor market cools after the Fed’s March 2022–July 2023 rate rises, the Fed policymaking table has grown more dovish in the second half of the year.

The U.S. unemployment rate, at 3.7%, will be released before the Fed’s Jan. 30-31 meeting.