The global economy is fragile, and a further inflationary increase could undermine central banks’ intentions to slow interest-rate hikes.

The summer’s fuel price spike gives Russia more money for its Ukraine war and Saudi Arabia more money for investment.

The Paris-based IEA predicted a fourth-quarter supply shortage of slightly over 1 million barrels a day, half as large as in July-September.

Saudi Arabia and Russia’s joint declaration on Tuesday made the final quarter deficit as severe as in the summer.

Other Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries supply sources have many obstacles, including a three-way legal battle with the Kurdish area and Turkey, and Iran increasing output despite weaker US sanctions.