China Evergrande Group seek protection in a major debt restructuring
China Evergrande Group has filed for U.S. bankruptcy protection in a major debt restructuring, amid concerns over China’s property crisis and its impact on the economy. The company, a top-selling developer, has become the poster child for the country’s massive debt problem in the property sector, which accounts for 25% of the economy. Evergrande plans…
Argentina has set oil prices far below international level
Argentina has set drillers’ oil prices at $56, much below international levels, to curb inflation after currency devaluation. This decision means shale companies would earn 11% less than the second-quarter $63 local light crude price and far from Brent, which is around $84. Producers of heavier Escalante crude from other places will receive a $5…
The Fed aim to minimize risk
The Fed’s 2% objective will be determined by the rate cut, as shelter prices, which drive inflation, are expected to fall this year. This will lower price pressures and make the fed funds rate adjusted for inflation more restrictive if left steady. The first rate cut is likely to be driven by adjusting the real…
Will the Fed hold off cutting rates?
The US Federal Reserve is expected to stop raising interest rates by end-March, with a majority of Reuters economists predicting a stop. The median probability of a recession within a year has dropped to 40%, its lowest since September 2022. The Fed will retain the federal funds rate at 5.25-5.50%, with around 80% foreseeing no…
The Fed’s minutes indicate slowing economy on US, but the market moving other way
On Thursday, Wall Street traded unevenly due to fears over China’s economic difficulties and the possibility of increased US interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to its highest level in ten months, breaking October’s high of 4.338%. The Fed’s July minutes indicate a gradual slowing of the US economy, while data reveal no such…
China’s Yuan are Struggling toward US Dollar
Chinese state banks sold dollars to prevent the offshore yuan from falling, as the U.S. currency strengthened 6% this year. EDL Capital, a $1 billion hedge fund, believes geopolitical concerns will starve China of foreign investment. China’s labor market is less competitive than Vietnam and India, and post-pandemic recovery has stalled. EDL’s hedge fund, managed…
US Consumer are spending more than expected
The US economy experienced a near-recession in the third quarter of last year, but unexpected growth has been observed, reaching 3.2% and higher. The Atlanta Fed GDP nowcast estimates July-September output growth at 5.8%, indicating strong consumption and an unexpected rebound in industrial production and housing starts. Consumers have been spending more than projected, and…
An Impact of US recession
A year ago, the US was in a recession, but recent data has shown a soft landing where growth falls below the trend in 2024 but remains positive. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes, falling housing investment, and other factors have led to a slowdown in economic momentum. The unemployment rate of 3.5% in July…