After striking a 9-1/2-month high on Tuesday, the dollar rose against the yen and the euro as investors worried about Japan’s fiscal posture and anticipated U.S. data on the Federal Reserve’s next move.
The Cleveland Fed said that 39,000 Americans were given advance notice of layoffs last month, while ADP Research reported that companies lost 2,500 positions a week on average in the four weeks ending November 1.
This comes as investors worry about a weaker U.S. economy and interest-rate decreases fade.
Missing data is the focus. I have no Fed envy. They’re stranded “StoneX senior technical strategist Michael Boutros stated. “Looking at the market on paper, there is really no justification for a rate cut at this point.”
Dollar Index Rises
After ending a four-day losing streak on Monday, the dollar index rose 0.02% to 99.55.
The yen fell 0.2% to 155.58 per dollar. It fell to 155.73 in New York trading, its lowest level since February 3.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has suggested hiking interest rates next month, but Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has opposed the plan and encouraged the BoJ to help reflate the economy.
With Takaichi’s Abenomics-style plans likely to keep pressure on the yen, Barclays suggested keeping long on the dollar.
“Japan has added a tumultuous element because this new prime minister seems more aggressive and wants to spend more,” said Monex USA trading director Juan Perez. “That eliminates Japan’s financial safety. They’re wilder and more explosive now.”
Risk of intervention
Analysts observed an increasing risk of foreign-exchange intervention, which might curb the dollar’s rise, although recent rhetorical warnings from officials do not indicate impending action.