Black Friday, a name-only event, has passed, and retailers have moved holiday deals to early November or late October, making Black Friday sales data less accurate.

This year, holiday shopping puts greater financial strain on many homes due to gas prices dropping, inflation slowing, credit card debt, and student loan repayments.

To pick retail stocks, review past two weeks of big retailer results calls and daily promotion tracking.

Retailers may offer larger discounts early in the season to win in a weak economy, making this more significant this year.

However, experts warn that Black Friday’s “black hole” will cannibalize full-price sales from two high-margin periods: Sept/Oct (new Fall collections) and December (an important selling period for laggards who didn’t buy gifts in November).

Retailers should be cautious when offering broad and deep promotions, as they can negatively impact profitability. Promotions are expected to be constant this year.